Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#3
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#5
Pace78.2#29
Improvement+1.5#119

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+7.9#16
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#12
Layup/Dunks-0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+10.3#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#311
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement-2.2#286

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#6
First Shot+8.7#2
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#145
Layups/Dunks+8.6#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
Freethrows+3.5#18
Improvement+3.7#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 51.4% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 92.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round97.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen78.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight53.8% n/a n/a
Final Four33.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game20.0% n/a n/a
National Champion11.4% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 84   Temple W 91-67 89%     1 - 0 +30.6 +20.8 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2015 189   Fairfield W 92-65 98%     2 - 0 +22.5 +5.6 +13.8
  Nov 18, 2015 187   Wofford W 78-58 98%     3 - 0 +15.6 +1.1 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2015 80   @ Northern Iowa L 67-71 83%     3 - 1 +5.9 +2.5 +3.3
  Nov 23, 2015 65   Northwestern W 80-69 87%     4 - 1 +19.2 +12.6 +6.9
  Nov 24, 2015 49   Kansas St. W 80-70 82%     5 - 1 +20.4 +10.2 +9.7
  Dec 01, 2015 22   Maryland W 89-81 78%     6 - 1 +19.9 +11.5 +7.5
  Dec 06, 2015 105   Davidson W 98-65 94%     7 - 1 +35.0 +5.7 +24.1
  Dec 12, 2015 30   @ Texas L 82-84 67%     7 - 2 +13.7 +22.0 -8.4
  Dec 16, 2015 192   Tulane W 96-72 98%     8 - 2 +19.2 +20.7 -2.5
  Dec 19, 2015 63   UCLA W 89-76 86%     9 - 2 +21.5 +13.1 +7.6
  Dec 21, 2015 260   Appalachian St. W 94-70 99%     10 - 2 +14.9 +8.5 +4.6
  Dec 28, 2015 210   UNC Greensboro W 96-63 98%     11 - 2 +26.9 +20.1 +7.2
  Dec 30, 2015 48   Clemson W 80-69 88%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +18.6 +10.4 +8.3
  Jan 02, 2016 55   Georgia Tech W 86-78 89%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +14.8 +9.1 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2016 46   @ Florida St. W 106-90 74%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +29.5 +16.3 +9.8
  Jan 09, 2016 38   @ Syracuse W 84-73 71%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +25.4 +19.3 +6.1
  Jan 16, 2016 74   North Carolina St. W 67-55 92%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +16.7 +0.1 +17.8
  Jan 20, 2016 111   Wake Forest W 83-68 95%     17 - 2 6 - 0 +16.0 -0.4 +14.3
  Jan 24, 2016 61   @ Virginia Tech W 75-70 79%     18 - 2 7 - 0 +16.8 +2.3 +14.2
  Jan 30, 2016 206   Boston College W 89-62 98%     19 - 2 8 - 0 +21.2 +9.9 +9.0
  Feb 01, 2016 11   @ Louisville L 65-71 51%     19 - 3 8 - 1 +13.9 +3.7 +10.2
  Feb 06, 2016 36   @ Notre Dame L 76-80 71%     19 - 4 8 - 2 +10.6 +6.0 +4.6
  Feb 09, 2016 206   @ Boston College W 68-65 96%     20 - 4 9 - 2 +3.0 +2.6 +0.5
  Feb 14, 2016 34   Pittsburgh W 85-64 85%     21 - 4 10 - 2 +30.0 +11.2 +17.9
  Feb 17, 2016 17   Duke L 73-74 76%     21 - 5 10 - 3 +11.7 +3.8 +7.9
  Feb 20, 2016 14   Miami (FL) W 96-71 75%     22 - 5 11 - 3 +38.2 +29.2 +9.4
  Feb 24, 2016 74   @ North Carolina St. W 80-68 82%     23 - 5 12 - 3 +22.6 +8.9 +13.6
  Feb 27, 2016 4   @ Virginia L 74-79 41%     23 - 6 12 - 4 +17.6 +13.1 +4.4
  Feb 29, 2016 38   Syracuse W 75-70 86%     24 - 6 13 - 4 +13.6 +6.4 +7.1
  Mar 05, 2016 17   @ Duke W 76-72 56%     25 - 6 14 - 4 +22.6 +4.4 +17.9
  Mar 10, 2016 34   Pittsburgh W 88-71 78%     26 - 6 +28.9 +20.3 +8.8
  Mar 11, 2016 36   Notre Dame W 78-47 79%     27 - 6 +42.6 +6.5 +36.1
  Mar 12, 2016 4   Virginia W 61-57 52%     28 - 6 +23.7 +8.7 +15.7
Projected Record 28.0 - 6.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.6 51.4 41.2 7.3 0.1
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.6 51.4 41.2 7.3 0.1